If the 1908 asteroid explosion that hit Siberia were to occur above Manhattan today, it would cause more than a trillion dollars in property loss and 3.2 million deaths, according to a catastrophe modeling firm.
Risk Management Solutions (RMS), Newark, Calif., reached its conclusions after superimposing the damage footprint of the 1908 event, which saw a comet blast 3 to 6 miles in the upper atmosphere above the Tunguska River forest in Central Siberia. That explosion leveled trees within a 770 square mile area.
RMS said such an event could create hurricane-force winds and fire ignitions due to thermal exposure.
For Manhattan and its surrounding area, RMS said total economic exposure would measure $760 billion between the outer and inner contours of the footprint and $1.38 trillion inside the inner contour. As a result, property losses are estimated at approximately $1.19 trillion.
Exposure of 3.61 million people between the inner and outer contours and 6.25 million people inside the inner contour of the disaster footprint would mean approximately 3.2 million fatalities and 3.76 million injuries.
The 17-page report, which discusses impacts from asteroids ranging from a kilometer to 10 meters in diameter, is online at http://www.rms.com/publications/1908_tunguska_event.pdf